The Brownfield Method

Recently revisited Jamie Mai and Charlie Ledley's strategy when they turned $110,000 into $30,000,000 before their Big Short trade. It got me thinking about what some asymmetric possibilities might be for 2022- mostly with LEAP options on the stocks that fall into the category of “beaten down but have a potential to skyrocket unexpectedly.” These will almost always be on the cheaper end, have questionable financials, and may have already squeezed or been lumped in with the “meme stocks” already- BUT the idea here is to attempt to make 10x, 20x, 100x, etc. while also taking on minimal risk.

SOFI- increasing revenue, losing less money, big advertising with naming the NFL stadium. Current market cap: $10 billion. Charts indicate a boom cycle to >$20 every 5ish months and may run up again in march/april if it follows the trend. Cons- run by Chamath who has exhibited questionable success but manages to positively market himself and his companies to a certain degree. Big banks will also probably not allow SOFI to eat up too much market share or their customers.

TLRY- increasing revenue, merged with Aphria, valued at 3.3B, marijuana industry expected to grow 23% CAGR through 2028, medical and therapeutic use becoming more widespread. Cons- share dilutions and failed expectations have plagued marijuana stocks. Big tobacco can still suppress and/or buyout most of the industry. Profitability is challenging with increased regulations.

NRG- trading flat despite massive YoY jump in revenue, profit margin, income, etc due to oil cycle and russia tensions. possibility exists for oil to continue to $130 per barrel, widening margins further for energy stocks. Con- Russia could just as easily decide not to invade Ukraine, and oil prices could drop as a reaction.

I’ll also be looking into Phase 3 pharma/biotech

There are no sure bets in looking for asymmetric opportunities- however that's the point of finding a few promising ones and diversifying (a dirty word here, I know).

So, what are your asymmetric bets for 2022 and why?


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