Outlook on base metals for the next 5 or so years?

Not planning to go put a big portion of my portfolio in BHP or something btw before someone says I was just thinking of putting a few percent in an ETF but I'd like to know more about how the thesis for base metals looks.

Before it was industrial demand via emerging markets will be high. Now it seems to be more of a case of a shortage of copper, nickel, lithium, etc in terms of being able to supply upcoming demand worldwide. However as compared to 2019, the price of all of these metals has already gone up significantly so I don't want to be investing while late to a commodity cycle. I assume a chunk of that bump was due to supply chain constraints but how much of it is due to a shortage and how much of that can continue for multiple years? Is it still a cycle or is this just a trend now which will continue?

I'm mostly an ETF + asset-not-allowed-to-be-named on this sub investor that buys and holds so I don't like to trade in and out of commodity plays much but I'm looking at base metal ETFs and wondering if you can just buy and hold these as a small 2 or 3% of your portfolio for multiple years if the shortage will be sustained for years or if we're still under cyclicality.


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