My Journey , my assumption and the future.

My journey:
I have not 10 years expierence of investing , i am still in my early 20´s and Uni student but i started like many others investing in stocks in 2020. Luckily i started buying on March of 17th which later on became the best financial decision i have made in my life. I started selling my positions in december 2021 when i saw inflation getting higher every month and job data getting better with interest rates still low and thinking the tapering will end in march. My first big position i sold was TSLA at 1185$ with a 550% Profit, in the last year i did some smaller trades on stocks and options. My Position are still hold are some Oil/Gas Raffineries in EUROPE (75% sold) and Oil/Gas Equipment makers for drilling Rigs. (0% sold) and 5% options (QQQ puts). I started selling my oil raff. a week ago when i saw it running hotter and people starting telling about “How to invest in oil”. I plan to sell the Equipment makers for rigs later this year couse i think they have still alot of room to go. (Looking at the Rig count)
Till now i turned 250k which i inherritated in 835k (only my sold positions included)

My rational assumption – Energy Inflation (Energy is a cycle)
Energy prices rising is mostly not couse of the money printing but is driven mostly by underinvestments over the last years , the corona virus supply chain disruption just made it faster. OPEC is saying they raise the Supply by 400k/bpd but as reports show , they didnt raise it accordingly (some say they cant , i say they can but they r not doing it). Coming to the last point of my assumption , i didnt plan the Ukraine-Russian tension in it , but its driven prices higher. Where the prices will go nobody knows , but what i assume is that the US has to drill more in the US itself. To not get under pressure politicaly and socially and not be pushed to a solution in Iranian Atomprogramm Talks.
I learned something about Oil rigs , which is , when they are turned off , its not that easy to turn them on and also the whole equipment has to be changed to new stuff. Based on that assumptions Drill equipment makers will have potential in my opion and thats why i still hold them since March 2020 and plan to sell them when i think the cycle is running to hot.

Always was wondering why we humans are stupid when it comes to investing.
People do very irrational decisions based on nothing but on rumors or assumptions backed by nothing. Just one example is thursday , when CPI data was reported . The market instantly dropped in premarket , everyone was posting the end of “Growth stocks” , and “Markets crashing” etc. Then market opens and recovers midday – people started posting “see told you guys we rally” “Cpi dont matter as much” “the selloff already happened” “priced in” … market sold off end of day followed by a harder sell off on friday.

Why am i doing this post?
I wanted to share my journey and thoughts i have and also maybe some of you can take something useful out of this.
I see posts people losing their money they made in 2020/2021 or even more than that. Even in my real life i hear friends and people say they lost money in the market recently by stocks and options.
For me it has always been clear that the only thing that matters were numbers and rational thinking and not what someone else said.

The future :
Do i think the market will have a big crash? No (if there is no war) , i do think there will be more sell off in some sectors but based on what i see in the economy , i think the comming years will have alot of upwards potential for alot of companies. Right now alot of things are too expensive for me .

I will take a break and only will DCA into the SPY every week , also i am not gonna look into the comments or at reddit at all. I will focus on my studies and try to contribute something to society and spend time with my family.

My biggest Position i had/hold : TSLA ; XOM ; SLB (90% of my Portfolio)
The rest i had/hold : TLRY ; CDR ; GME ; GS ; GOOGL ; MSFT ;
Options : QQQ Puts (Short term) , SLB Leaps ; Googl leaps itm

Happy Valentinesday


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