INTC is a bet. Putting money on INTC pre-dotcom and pre-AI revolution that is.

What do I mean by this?

Let me preface this by saying my portfolio is a reverse SMH with Intel on the top. Consistently bought the 30s-33s over the past year. I am currently a bagholder with 10k cost basis (35% of holdings) down 40% as of writing.

Intel is basically a lame duck company. That is how it has been for the past 20 years, and right now. And the bet is that they will no longer be one. There is no other way to logically invest in Intel other than seeing it as a bet.

This is not, or may not even, going to be a growth stock for a while. This is (no longer) a dividend stock. This isn't even a real cyclical, because for that you'd need strong demand cycles, and that demand is met by other companies. Their product lines are not strong enough or they'd be a true competitor in their spaces and we would not be having these discussions. They have been a wealth desert.

What exactly is Intel's bet?

The Intel bet is twofold: 1) The threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and 2a) The AI revolution manifesting 2b) Intel catching up in time to grab a significant market share

Intel is a bet on America, or a bet on a Miracle. Or both.

Intel is about as risky as any option going on right now. There is a very real possibility, in stock terms, that you've wasted your money (either literally or through opportunity cost), for the slim chance that you hit it big. The value of Intel is now the chances that the market sees it achieves either of these bets.

With this in mind we need to understand the psychology of the Intel investor, as I am one.

What is an INTC bagholder but a miserable pile of secrets?

Why do people buy Intel? Well before they wanted to collect dividend like it's MCD or GE or some other boomer stock. The company restructured itself to provide maximum immediate and dividend value to shareholders by gutting innovation and resting on laurels. That was the perception of Intel for the past 20 years.

Now, people buy Intel to participate on the aforementioned bets. The company has signaled it wishes to make this turnaround and so has the US government. If you are in it for any other reason (or you are unfortunate to still be working there, not gutted and it's your 401k which is a minority), you should not touch this stock at all. You need to accept that the money is forfeit. You are not a tech investor. You are making a bet and that makes you a gambler.

TSMC and Samsung are the top dogs because they are safe, and you are betting they won't be. NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm and such have taken the lead, and you are betting that there's a spot for Intel. If China relents then that bet is dead, and if AI is dead, then Intel's recovery is moot. Even if AI is not dead, it needs to actually pull off the recovery, and that's where the other bet lies.

Should I become a bagholder?

Once you have accepted that this stock carries massive risk and that your money is forfeit, then you can bother owning it.

Going long in Intel right now is the closest stock you can get to being an option. Like buying puts/calls, there is no dividend here. Very very risky, high chance of failure.