Why is the 10-year yield at 2.8% when the Federal funds rate is at 2.25-2.5% and we know more hikes are coming, probably to exceed 3%.


If we know additional hikes are coming, maybe a 0.5% or even markets are starting to “price in” a 0.75% rate hike, then why is the 10 year yield at 2.8%? Even just one 0.75 hike puts the new yield at 3.0-3.25% and we know pretty much for fact there will be more than one hike, the Fed keeps trying to make this a clear point.

I understand the 2 year and shorter time frame bonds tend to track the Fed rate much tighter, but it's almost a guarantee at this point that the Federal rate is going to exceed 3%. So if that's the case, why are bonds being sold off only yielding less than what is almost an absolute certainty. It seems like financial institutions or the lenders purchasing these bonds would be losing money on these transactions in the coming months.


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