Why do we keep putting our faith in economic forecasts? Bloomberg said last year 100% probability of U.S. recession TODAY!


This post has over 4,000 upvotes. This article is from a year ago, dated Oct 17, 2022.

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y79r6v/100_probability_of_us_recession_in_coming_year/ista8me/

“It based on numerous indicators, such as decades-high inflation, Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, and mounting geopolitical tensions. Additionally, a separate survey of 42 economists predicted the likelihood of a recession over the next year at 60%”

We often see these bold forecasts, backed by elaborate models and expert opinions, yet the actual outcomes can diverge significantly.

Why do we keep putting our faith in these economic forecasts, even when history has shown that they can be off the mark? Is it the allure of certainty in uncertain times? Is it the credentials and reputations of the institutions and individuals behind these predictions? Or is it simply human nature to seek patterns and assurances, even in the complex and often unpredictable world of economics?

Thank you u/RemindMeBot for reminding me of this post


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