Sure, stock is down, some crashing hard, but yet many people seem to be having some strong opinions on whether not the bottom is in, or a bigger crash is coming.
But in reality, nobody knows. Indeed, if there was a stronger consensus on how stock should get lower, more people would've cashed out and stocks will be selling at those levels already. Contrarily, if there was stronger consensus on how stock is going to rebound, many people would have bought in fear of missing out.
This uncertainty is exactly the reason why stock is low now, the opinions are priced in. Sure you think there's a strong rebound? call options have a high premium for that gamble. Sure you think stock will tank? put options aren't cheap either. Plus, none of us retail investors are experts, and we likely have far less information than wall street pros and analysts. So how can we know when something is really priced in?
When news come out that is slightly better than the institutions expected, they might come in and buy, stock goes up. Same thing for when news is slightly worse, then stock goes down. Without us knowing all those information, how can retail investors possibly predict? Inflation or not, stock up and down or not, these are all public information, and the price already reflects all that. But what happens the next day, is anyone's guess.
The only truth I can think of, is the fundamental asymmetry of stock performance. While stock can go down, and $100 can go down to 0$, it can technically go up without bound. So ignoring emotion, what's worse? losing half of a stock value, $50, or missing out on doubling on stock value $100? In the end, that's why time in the market beats timing the market. If I tell you stock will likely say 3x eventually, isn't it better to stay invested and guarantee those eventual gains versus getting out and risking a smaller 1x loss?
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