When Buying the Dip DOES Work: An Analysis of the Dot-com Crash. The counter argument


In regards to the other post: One time investments have a higher risk. However most people will invest with their monthly or yearly salary. So lets assume you invest 1.000$ each year for 10 years instead of buying all at once:

In the article he was looking into the QQQ, which Ill also use as a reference:

Starting investing 1999 (earliest date 1st April 1999, other years 1st Januar):

year Price QQQ in $ Amount for 1000$
1999 53.72 18.61
2000 89.69 11.14
2001 64.30 15.55
2002 38.51 25.96
2003 24.44 40.91
2004 37.07 26.97
2005 37.40 26.73
2006 42.00 23.80
2007 44.07 22.69
2008 45.13 22.15
2009 29.06 34.41
2010 42.79 23.36
2011 56.00 17.85

So now lets evaluate how successful it would be to invest for 10 years with 1000$ each year starting from:

  • 1999 to 2008: 234.51 Shares of QQQ worth 10,034.68$ in year 2010
  • 2000 to 2009: 261.45 Shares of QQQ worth 14,641.20$ in year 2011

So time in the market beats timing the market. Even in the most bearish time frame with Dotcom 2001 and Housing Market Crash 2008. But time in the market also means to not stop buying, no matter the market situation.


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