I'm bullish as hell on oil and am seriously considering putting a lot of my money on 160 calls. These are my reasons:
1) Oil investment has been low for the past few years due to a push in green tech however renewables like wind and solar aren't very efficient in the places it's needed most and storing and transporting the energy would often negate the benefit.
2) Global supplychains are breaking down. Covid exposed the vulnerabilities of supply chains and the Russian war has shown that the peace needed to grow economies isn't a guarantee. Oil, natural gas, potash, ammonia, wheat have all gone through the roof. India has imposed export bans, China is imposing new policy aimed at increasing food security and also propping up Russia's oil economy. Europe is aiming to get off Russian oil, the US is burning through their reserves. Europe is pushing green tech but the supply chains will be much more complex since instead of one commodity you need nickel, copper, aluminum, manganese, palladium, platinum, cobalt, lithium, zinc, graphite, silicone, etc. In a world where deglobalization seems to be taking place it seems unreasonable that we'll be constructing much more complex supply chains than with oil and gas.
Someone bring mr back to reality. What is the bear case for oil?
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