What would happen to the chip industry if China acquires Siemens Digital Industries Software?


As someone who has been working in ASML's supply chain for a couple of years, and has positioned his little savings heavily in favor of the lithography and the chip industry in general, I can't help but watch the China chip news closely. Just like everyone else, I am apprehensive about the development of the China-Taiwan relationship, and the possibility of another war unfolding upon us. There is no doubt that if there should be a war, the whole world will suffer.

However, while everyone is anxiously thinking about a possible war in Taiwan and catastrophic effects on TSMC, no one seems to be really aware of other ways that China can affect the lithography industry. At the moment of writing this post, ASML is basically a monopoly in advanced lithography and EUV, and chances are that they will stay that way for the following decade. However sadly, ASML's entire development environment is based on Siemens Digital Industries Software, namely CAD software NX and PDM/PLM software Teamcenter. Both software are proprietary, meaning ASML has no clue what the content of their files and documents is. In practice, SIEMENS owns all the advanced technologies that ASML has developed or is developing. SIEMENS is not a supplier that they can replace.

ASML decision makers, who I believe to be among the smartest people in the world, seem to be blind to this huge vulnerability. They do not seem to understand that they do not own their information when they are locking their entire existence in one single company's ecosystem. They keep working with SIEMENS because simply they have been using their products for decades.

Just imagine that one of China's completion companies (e.g., Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation SMIC) acquires this SIEMENS branch, or buys a majority of the shares. I would like to know your opinion about this possibility and the possible ripple effects across the chip industry. Maybe ASML's decision makers have already predicted this and have some alternatives for SIEMENS? maybe they have secretly acquired the majority of the shares already? Please share your opinion.


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