What weight do you assign to each of the contributing factors to this downturn?


We are in a rather unusual situation given that unlike many stock market downturns where there is one overarching reason for the markets taking a hit, we actually have multiple factors contributing to this one. To answer the question “when will the market recover”, I think it's first important to assess and decide the impact and weightage of each individual factor.

I believe the consensus is that the following are the main factors contributing to the slump in the markets (for ease of comparison, let's assign a percentage to each factor representing its overall impact on the current situation):

  • Significant inflation (and the measures already taken and planned to combat it, such as rising interest rates, the Fed reducing its balance sheet etc.)

  • The Ukraine crisis, which led to massive disruptions across several sectors including energy and consumer products

  • The wider supply chain disruption, which impacts the flow of goods

  • The China situation, both due to the economic impact of repeated lockdowns and the financial instability of several Chinese companies

Of course, some of these are interlinked and there will also be other relevant factors which I haven't listed, so feel free to add your own.


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