Here are my thoughts please feel free to contradict/supplement me since I'm by no means any kind of expert or even moderately knowledgeable in this subject.
I think reshoring is going to be a strong trend given that:
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It would be a popular rally cry from both political parties. It would be very popular cause especially in manufacturing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, etc — some of which are possibly swing states.
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The more unrest we see out of China and Russia, the more this concept will gain support.
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Some big companies will want to shore up their supply chain (e.g. maybe like car companies with semiconductors). They will lobby hard for this.
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Labor unions should also love this as more manufacturing = more jobs and more union members.
Some effects might be:
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Inflation. Reestablishing manufacturing is going to require initial investment in building factories
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Our labor is more expensive than China's. The labor market is already tight on the supply side right now, if we were to create millions of well paying labor jobs this might create scarcity of labor (will this trigger wage-price spiral)?
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Retaliatory trade wars. Our legislations encouraging re-shoring might be interpreted as anti free trade which may trigger China to launch their own protectionist rules, causing a cycle of hostility (although arguably this was going to happen anyway).
So what kind of companies will benefit from this?
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Companies that help other companies build factories, infrastructure, etc (Like Catepillar).
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Companies that create automation — like Tesla robots? (I'm sure there's dozens of better companies just serving as eg.)
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Companies that help improve logistics — like software robot companies, Nvidia, etc.
SO what kind of companies will get hurt from this? I'm actually not sure.
Would love your thoughts on any of this, but especially what companies will benefit/hurt the most and why?
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