What level is enough?


Over the past few weeks, I've been witnessing intense debates between the Bulls and Bears claiming that the market has bottomed or the worst is yet to come. For disclosure purposes, I am now fully net long in my individual stock portfolio which consists of mainly semiconductors after buying heavily in the leadup to the CPI number we just encountered. In previous post, I warned against speculating on a Fed pivot and I'm fully aware of the risk for semiconductors and other individual stocks that I own. But that is beside the point. The main question is: “What level is enough?” Numerous companies from Amazon to Apple and from Fed Ex to Target have warned of consumer confidence tanking and slowing sales. This is direct evidence of consumer demand falling which should lead to falling inflation. With guidance comes certainty and with certainty comes probability. The probability is that investors have potentially priced enough falling demand for companies and the effects of high inflation. Despite the recent rally we have had, most companies have still fallen 30% to 50% except for value and consumer staple stocks. Going back to the main question and this time it's for bears and cash-heavy members of this Sub: “What level is enough?” to get you to buy in.


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