- Stock: ATVI
- Price Target: $95
- % upside from current price: 17%
- Methodology: Microsoft is acquiring ATVI for $95 and I expect the deal to go through
- Stock: EA
- Price Target: $178
- % upside from current price: 38%
- Methodology: 25x multiple on my FY '22 EBITDA forecast of $1,974m.
- 25x multiple is fair in my view for other tech stocks with high single-digit revenue growth + EBITDA margins in the high 20% range
- EBITDA forecast is aligned with management's guidance given on the recent earnings call with only one quarter remaining in the fiscal year
- Stock: IDXX
- Price Target: $619 – $642
- % upside from current price: 18% – 23%
- Methodology: 45x multiple on my FY '22 EBITDA forecast of $1,194m – $1,234m
- 45x EBITDA multiple can be converted to a 64x P/E multiple. That's a premium compared to 50x – 55x P/E multiples for high growth life sciences and diagnostic tool companies because of the positive secular and product tailwinds the company currently enjoys in animal health
- EBITDA forecast is aligned with management's guidance given on the recent earnings call
- Stock: ROKU
- Price Target: $251
- % upside from current price: 80%
- Methodology: 8.8x multiple on my FY '22 revenue forecast of $3,742m
- 8.8x multiple is based on what other peer high-tech growth stocks are trading at right now. Historically, the multiple was 9.0x – 10.0x before COVID.
- Revenue forecast is aligned with management's guidance given on the recent earnings call for 35% y/y growth
- Stock: TTWO
- Price Target: $217 – $243
- % upside from current price: 31% – 47%
- Methodology: 35x multiple on my FY '22 EBITDA forecast of $692m – $778m
- 35.0x multiple is a premium relative to EA because it's better positioned for the metaverse with GTA 6 & Red Dead IP and smaller marketcap. Both makes TTWO attractive to big tech with aspirations for the metaverse.
- EBITDA forecast is aligned with management's guidance given on the recent earnings call with only one quarter remaining in the fiscal year
- Stock: ZTS
- Price Target: $222 – $234
- % upside from current price: 14% – 20%
- Methodology: 30x multiple on my FY '22 EBITDA forecast of $3,611m – $3,798m
- 30.0x multiple is the same multiple I've seen other Wall Street analysts use for Zoetis so I aligned with them
- EBITDA forecast is aligned with management's guidance given on the recent earnings call
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