There persists two entrenched groups right now. 4150-4200 SP500 looks like the final line in the sand before it pauses and goes sideways or back down again. I think it’s going to be tough to get through 4150-4200 with any sustained momentum. Next week earnings looks like a bad week for many tech companies that don’t make money. Most mega cap has reported already, and the upside for the mega cap companies is very limited now. Energy might make a small run for a bit, but commodity prices will start scaring people again. The Manchin-Schumer reconciliation bill may pass next week, but any good feeling will quickly wain as it did for the CHIPS and Science Act; looking at you Tesla. Bad economic news will persist and it will become more obvious by September that the Fed was never dovish and may need to raise interest rates for longer into 2023. Negative sentiment will return; it’s inevitable. Not predicting the downside number but it’s definitely going to start leaning negative very soon. We have not even mentioned the Midterm elections and the unrealistic earnings outlook into 2023. I don’t get how people think 4800 end of year is realistic in this environment, but obviously anything can happen. Thoughts?
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