I’ve come to the conclusion that most of what I want to do as inflation/interest rates ramp up is hold on to what I have and keep DCAing a little into VTI every paycheck.
However, short term I do enjoy having some things that stay green when the rest of the market is hitting the fan. I size them appropriately, as they are definitely on the volatile or speculative side. No one knows where the market bottom is or how long any of this will last.
- Energy:
It is only 4% of VTI for the entire sector, compared to Google alone being 6% of VTI/VOO. So I feel like it adds some diversity to my base of indexes. The sector is massively outperforming and I think that could continue for the rest of the year minimum. We don’t need oil to be at record highs for these companies to be taking in record profits. Break even is somewhere around $40-65/barrel for most companies.
What to watch out for: 1. The geopolitical risks, like how an eventual end of the war in Ukraine could affect oil prices or how someone like OPEC can change everything. 2. The saying with most commodities is that high prices solve high prices. Oil is cyclical because these companies often ramp up production and flood the market. On the demand side, it seems that high prices aren’t keeping people from traveling this summer(based on flights booked and hotel bookings). But if prices are so high that people don’t want to travel we have some issues.
Companies I like: Big cap: $XOM, better than average dividend, great Q1 earnings. Announced a record $30 billion in share buybacks. Small cap: $VTNR: Vertex energy, $668 million market cap, oil refining company that bought another refinery from Shell in Mobile, Alabama in April. Recently crushed earnings. Had guidance saying they are expecting full year EBITDA of $350 million. Or > half of their market cap.
- Shorting ARKK ETF $SARK: I know, the time to buy this was in February or March. But I still think this trends up with every rate hike because 1. The Nasdaq is everything interest rate hikes hate. 2. Cathie Wood only invests in that “growth story” unprofitable shit that’s getting slaughtered. And 3. I think she is one of the worst fund managers of all time(buying high and selling low regularly), and I kind of love betting against her even on days when her fund rebounds. I messed with SQQQ and just didn’t care for the triple levered volatility. I also don’t trade with options for the same reasons.
The only thing I don’t like about funds like this is the expense ratio. But it is fun enough to make up for it IMO.
TLDR: I like energy and I like shorting Cathie Wood. What, if anything, do you have in your portfolio to keep you sane/hedge?
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