On Meet the Press yesterday, Yellin had the unenviable task of convincing Americans that even though it may look like a recession, sound like a recession, and feel like a recession, it’s not really a recession:
SEC. JANET YELLEN: I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that [second-quarter-GDP-growth] number is negative, we are not in a recession now. And I would, you know, warn that we should be not characterizing that as a recession —
CHUCK TODD: I understand that, but you’re splitting hairs. I mean, if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction, you’re saying that’s not a recession?
YELLEN: That’s not the tech —
TODD: No?
YELLEN: That’s not the technical definition. There’s an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession. And most of the data that they look at right now continues to be strong. I would be amazed if the NBER would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth. We’ve got a very strong labor market. When you’re creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research isn’t exactly speedy about these declarations. Back in December 2008, it announced that the U.S. was in a recession . . . that had begun almost one year earlier in January 2008.
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