Two diverging views on the commodity market from Goldman Sachs, focused on copper and oil/gas


Here are two Goldman Sachs research reports on commodities, in particular copper and oil/gas. An interesting example of how GS publishes views that are in opposition to each other.

Link 1: This report from Spring 2021 argues that copper prices must rise over the next decade to solve long-term supply deficits relative to a secular increase in demand.

Link 2: This report from August this year also discusses commodities (particularly energy/food). I want to in particular point you to Jeff Currie of GS (pages 4-5) versus Gary Shilling of a separate firm (pages 6-7).

I think reading pages 4-7 of Link 2 are most instructive to get the bear/bull case for copper & oil/gas.

Jeff's argument, put in more detail in Link 1 and more succinctly in Link 2, is all about a commodity supercycle driven by a need for higher prices to stimulate more cap-ex. Otherwise, the push for a greener economy (EVs, for example) will be impossible. A similar situation for oil/gas, where even a recession cannot keep oil/gas down forever, since humanity relies on them for near everything.

Gary takes a much more bearish outlook. He points out that copper supply is already starting to increase (although Link 1 points out how long it takes to open new mines). He writes that human ingenuity will inevitable fix supply issues by finding new efficiencies in production. This is why commodities have always been a terrible long-term trade besides a few speculative bull runs. There won't be a commodity super cycle, more like an inevitable crash and period of poor returns when supply comes roaring back. In oil/gas, he sees a return to 60/80s, but not much lower (in part due to OPEC cuts, as has happened). On copper, he's much more bearish, as there is no cartel to prop up prices–therefore, he does see a flood of new supply coming in.

Jeff definitely has a lot of numbers/modelling on his side, while Gary's argument seems to bet on the unknowables of humanity coming to the rescue. That said, Gary has a point that commodities do have a history of crashing down before any commodity super cycle really kicks in. We're seeing that live in shipping, for instance. Though even he puts a floor on how low oil can really go, and oil stocks today are pricing in much lower oil prices than $100 a barrel–close to $50-75.

Read the report(s) if you want the hard numbers/statistics. There are some nice graphs on page 4 of link 1 summarizing the case for $15K / metric tonne in copper.


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