Time to start DCA


This is a reminder for those who still have cash to start considering DCA. If you felt like you missed out when SP500 was up to 4500-4600, well now's your chance for that dip. Sp500 have now corrected to 4130, about 11% down from its peak of 4607. In bull markets, that's a typical correction amount that happens once a year. In bear markets, that's the typical level of correction before there's a bear market bounce of 5-7% or so. So either way, a sizable bounce is probably incoming and you should at least participate while waiting for further data.

Whether you think this is a bull market or not, and it's hard to know (I don't claim to know), it's probably a good time to at least DCA right now. If you're thinking there're so much negative news coming up and you want to wait until those negative news settle down, that's not going to happen. Market's going to spike up way before the outcomes are determined. For example in Oct 2022, we had a second really terrible CPI number after the Fed got really hawkish in Sept, and market bottomed and went up 5.5% the same day as the terrible CPI release. CPI didn't even get down to acceptable levels until December, and by then SP500 already went up 14% from its trough. Point is the best time to buy is when everything feels terrible, and it's not like you're buying at the peak here. Market has corrected a sizable amount, and if you DCA, you still have dry powder in case if you bought too early, but at least you bought some in case if this was the end of the correction.

“be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others fearful” – most overused Buffet quote.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *