As many of you are aware there has been a sudden influx of new investors and new users joining our community. I was debating whether I should make a post, because I may take some heat for this.
The Dems now have control of the house, the senate and the presidency and Chuck Schumer made his intentions clear that cannabis reform is a top priority this year. Because of this, the hype is back and the number of posters and comments has increased dramatically.
My concern is that I'm seeing a lot of misinformed posters spreading false information and making misleading claims. Daily, there are comments with false or inaccurate posts. The most egregious one is the recent APHA/Tilray pump that has been happening all over reddit. If you look at any of the big investing or stock forums you will see a daily post about how APHA/TLRY are the best way to play U.S. Cannabis legalization.
The reason everyone needs to be careful with this is because Apha and Tilray don't have a single license to grow or sell cannabis in the United States. If you want to play the U.S. Cannabis boom, you should be looking at investing in American companies, CGC or the sleep-easy pick MSOS ETF which holds all the top U.S. pot stocks.
Again, Apha/Tilray are a Canadian producer that owns a small U.S. craft beer company without a single license to grow or sell cannabis in the United States.
Claiming they will be “the world’s biggest cannabis company.” will be short lived at best as they most likely won't even be in the top 5 when U.S. decriminalization occurs. Curaleaf, Green Thumb, Cresco, Trulieve are all U.S. multi state operators and they are all top players and well positioned to continue domination the U.S.
I'm also seeing A LOT of comparison between APHA and CGC with people claiming that Aphria will move up to match Canopy's market cap. CGC is well positioned as well as they are backed by Costellation Brands (STZ), a fortune 500 company who invested $5 billion in them and they have used that money to open their own wholly owned retail stores, a beverage plant, they have Biosteel sports nutrition which is the official drink of the Raptors, Sixers and Mavericks, Martha Stewart CBD, they have several celebrity (Seth Rogan, Martha Stewart, Snoop Dogg) and athlete endorsements (Patrick Mahomes, Gleyber Torres, Ezekiel Elliott and Conor Mcdavid), This Works cosmetics, Storz & Bickel, and they sell CBD pet products as well. And of course, a clear path of entry into the U.S. via the acquisition of Acreage a U.S. multi state operator in 15 States with 29 open dispensaries and 7 production facilities. they also have a 21% stake in Terrascend another U.S. MSO.
Aphria has none of what I mention above. It will be extremely difficult for them to surpass any of the top players in the space. Once the APHA/TLRY merger is completed, their combined company cash to debt position will be alarming and will need to be addressed. On top of that, the only way for them to enter and compete and get licenses in the states is to acquire a U.S. multi state operator and the only way for them to do it is by raising $$ by diluting shareholders.
Edit:
Aphria and Tilray will need to start at ground zero and play catch up, but US companies on the other hand are already established and have a large foot print in multiple states with several stores, facilities and dispensaries.
Aphria/Tilray: 0 states, 0 facilities, 0 stores
Top U. S. OPERATORS
Curaleaf: 23 states, 30 facilities and 98 retail locations
Green Thumb: 12 states, 13 facilities and 52 retail locations
Cresco: 9 states, 15 facilities, 20 stores
Again, there is a lot of misinformation being shared right now about APHA/Tilray, the biggest one being that they are a strong play for U.S. legalization. You would be better off going with literally any of the U.S. multi state operators over them or MSOS.
With that being said, if you have recently joined this community and are looking to play the U.S. decimalization/legalization cannabis boom, this is a generational opportunity that has the potential to change your life if you invest in the right companies.
Please do your due diligence and fact check what you read before making any financial decisions. Although some people genuinely do come on here to share knowledge, remember that an internet stranger does not care if you make or lose money and in many cases will only be pumping their own bags.
Leave a Reply