The Perfect Stock Fraud.


By thought experiment, I believe I know a way to pull off a multi-billion dollar con in a manner that would not only be unprovable but would arouse no suspicion and would not even incur taxes.

We're all familiar with the saying “If it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is” which is generally the case with frauds. They like boasting how great they are and how much money you will make if you give them the cash now. This is especially true for stocks since it is easy to lie and change anticipated growth. This doesn't necessarily even involve cooking the books, they might simply issue an “adjusted” or “projected” earnings books alleging that GAAP-compliant numbers are “misleading.” This subtle scam is just as often the product of foolishness as actual lying, but in any case you should steer clear when the bosses appear to be trying to make the business look more profitable than it is.

However, the reverse scam is definitely possible if less common. You start with a business and report everything accurately, comply with all rules, work with all efficiency, turn a profit, and go public at a fair price. You and your cronies all agree to take part of your pay in the form of company stock and put company profits aside for the key part later. You then cook the books making the company look less profitable than it is and shareholder meetings speak of mistakes in management and/or disclose fake or exaggerated fears for the future. You then use company profits to buyback shares of the company.

The scheme works because you may initially sell shares for $10, then buy them back for $5. To show how easy this is, it's actually illegal to recognize deferred revenues but no one cares if you recognize asset purchases up front or if you spread out the cost. For instance, if you get preorders for product and get paid up front, you are not allowed to record the profits until the customer receives the product. However, if you buy a truck to do business, you may break up the cost across the expected lifespan (I.E. recording a $100/month cost for 10 years), or you may recognize the full cost of the truck up front.

Other tricks can be used to simply take revenue off the books entirely, like using privately owned affiliated companies to make those sales, making the company appear smaller than it really is. You can also diversify in order to get the “conglomerate discount,” because speculators typically won't touch “safe” companies like a fully diversified conglomerate. You can even lower the stock price by speaking publicly of real scandals within the company that make management look less skilled. However is the case, the con is you sell your shares at full price then buy them back later for dirt cheap.

There are several reasons this con is far less common than the standard “pump and dump” scheme. First, because you have to start out rich. Trevor Milton simply rolled a semi down a hill to pump up Nikola but to short and distort your own company you have to start with a real-world company. Second is simple ego, because frauds always equate wealth with social status. These guys only want the money so they can rub it in your face. Third reason is the amount you can con is fixed at the start by the fair value of the company, while frauds want infinite money.

But the fourth reason is who would be looking for such a con? If you saw them, you'd just see a struggling business, and if you're Keith Gill you may see a deep value case. However, no one looks at a modest boss in a modest office who just wants to turn a profit and thinks “something's fishy.”


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