OVERALL: Pretty wild month. Price hit multiple technical levels over the course of October: first on the resistance side, which sent price right down to major levels on the support side, and then the monster move we've seen since. Given how much upside there has been since this week's transition from October to November, every major is at least short erm extended, putting probabilities in favor of at least a consolidation-style pullback. What happens next will determine how we close out 2023; I personally could see a little more upwards action, but I still believe the bearish formations on the bigger timeframes will continue sending prices lower.
Here is a look back at the technical levels hit in October:
SPY
Minor Resist: 438.64 (gap-fill) — FILLED 10/17
Minor Support: 418.31 (2/23 pivot high) — BREAKDOWN 10/25
Major Support: 416.40 – 410.50 (converging lower-low TL + former bull channel floor TL) — BOUNCE 10/26-10/30
QQQ
Channel Resistance: 373.50 (lower-high TL) — PIVOT HIGH 10/12
Channel Support: 348.15 (lower-low TL) — BOUNCE 10/26-10/30
IWM
Major Support: 162.78 (triple bottom) — BOUNCE 10/27-10/31
Here is a look forward at the technical levels heading into November:
SPY
Minor Resist: Current price (former H&S neckline; 2x hits weakened)
Major Resistance: 442.10 (lower-high TL) to 442.60 (former support TL w/o check-back)
2nd Major Resist: 450.60 (9/14 gap-fill) to 453.67 (1st lower high pivot)
Minor Support: 422.66 (11/1 gap-fill) + 50% Fib from 10/27-11/03 up move + 10/3-6 consolidation area + potential 20/200 DMA crossover?
Minor Support: 413.45 (former parallel channel floor; recent hit weakened)
Major Support: 407.75 to 402.60 (convergence of current bear + former bull TLs)
QQQ — parallel channel still in tact
Channel Resist: 369.85 (lower-high TL)
Channel Support: 340.70 (lower-low TL) + 200 DMA
Major Resist: 373.74 (4th lower high pivot from 10/12)
Major Support: Channel Support to 334.42 (convergence of 8/16 pivot high + Oct 2022 upsloping TL)
IWM
Major Resist: 179 (lower-low TL)
Minor Resist: 179.86 (9/20 gap-fill)
2nd Major Resist: 183.45 (H&S neckline)
Minor Support: 169.70 (breakout from previous consolidation)
Major/Minor Support: COVID TL (major vs minor will depend on how long price stays away)
Major Support: 145 – 142 lower consolidation area
Here are the trades I closed in October:
USO Puts +17.74%
BSX Short +5.47%
VIXY Long +1.75%
VXX Long +3.21%
HRL Long +1.49%
CLH Short +8.51%
HRL Long +1.03%
2023 YTD Trades 103
2023 YTD Winners 100
2023 YTD Losers 3
2023 Win/Loss Rate 97.09%
2023 YTD Return on Risk +8.81%
2023 YTD Account Growth +10.68%
I hope everyone had a great October & good luck this month!
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