Original post confidently states that $1k invested in 5 largest food stocks, buy after ex div, sell before earnings yields 29% annually.
A cool idea that prompted me to get set up with proper simulation capabilities. u/LocomotionLover let me know if you see any errors. This new post needed for table markdown.
My simulation (python and EODHD) shows that over the last 10 years or 4 years, returns are 6% per year with 58% time in the market, so effective rate 10%. Not as far off S&P500 than I expected, though a long way off the 29% promised.
There's much discussion about the sim benefiting from survivor bias by picking today's eventual winners. My guess was the bias boosts simulated returns, but others disagreed, so I checked it here https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1fcwt9k/i_cracked_the_code_part_2/
Here's a 10 year simulation and extract of a ~4 year sim table in case anyone wants to check a few trades. It's difficult to go older than 10 years due to lack of data in the API I use.
| Date $ | NESN.SW | MDLZ | HSY | GIS | KHC | Subtotal | Cumulative gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-17 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 5,000 | 0% |
| 2020-03-18 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,103 | 1,000 | 5,103 | 2% |
| 2020-04-23 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 855 | 1,103 | 1,000 | 4,958 | -1% |
| 2020-04-28 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 855 | 1,103 | 1,000 | 4,958 | -1% |
| 2020-04-30 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 855 | 1,103 | 1,512 | 5,470 | 9% |
| 2020-07-01 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 855 | 1,196 | 1,512 | 5,563 | 11% |
| … | |||||||
| 2024-05-01 | 1,000 | 1,426 | 1,438 | 1,132 | 1,751 | 6,746 | 35% |
| 2024-05-03 | 1,000 | 1,426 | 1,489 | 1,132 | 1,751 | 6,797 | 36% |
| 2024-06-26 | 1,000 | 1,426 | 1,489 | 1,035 | 1,751 | 6,700 | 34% |
| 2024-07-30 | 1,000 | 1,461 | 1,489 | 1,035 | 1,751 | 6,735 | 35% |
| 2024-07-31 | 1,000 | 1,461 | 1,489 | 1,035 | 1,783 | 6,767 | 35% |
| 2024-08-01 | 1,000 | 1,461 | 1,427 | 1,035 | 1,783 | 6,706 | 34% |
| 2024-09-06 | 933 | 1,461 | 1,474 | 1,239 | 1,804 | 6,911 | 38% |
[edit] Loads of edits and additions from people's comments.
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