I've been in the market during three significant downturns: dot-com (teenager with a custodial Etrade account), 2008 and 2020. In all cases, the bottom was when people took worst-case scenarios as given. They all thought it was obvious things would go lower, and even if they were buyers, they prefaced comments with statements like “I'm just going to keep buying all the way to the bottom.” No one thought things were about to go up.
Somehow, we're at that point right now. It is somehow clear to everyone that things are bad and are going to get much, much worse. That sort of sentiment makes me think we are in for a rally. When markets have been on the edge of an actual cliff before, the prevailing view was things wouldn't get that bad, valuations weren't too crazy, known risks were less serious than some thought, etc.
My view: The economy is stronger than some people believe, we don't have a recession, oil prices won't go as high as some think and the sell off will be viewed as a buying opportunity in retrospect. There are still some stocks that I think will fall further (no- or low-earnings tech), but significant parts of the market are not particularly expensive relative to earnings, especially when interest rates are accounted for. Historic PE for S&P: https://www.macrotrends.net/assets/images/large/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart.png
Good luck to all.
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