I’m sure you’ve heard it all before, that this recent uptick is just a bear market rally and that another rug pull is on the way. I think differently, so much so I think we will see ATH this fall and possibly hit 5000 by Christmas. Here are the reasons:
1: This “recession” is priced in, and it turns out the cost isn’t that large. Unemployment remains low, and people are buying stuff. The line at Chik fil A is still long as ever, and people still can’t get a PS5 at retail.
2: The Ukraine war isn’t that big of a deal. Support is starting to wane, and oil prices are going down anyway. Eventually the conflict will fade into obscurity. As for the European winter, so what if they have to turn on their coal plants? They will still be itching to buy the next iPhone.
3: Chinese housing crisis isn’t a crisis at all. CCP will simply “fix” the balance sheets like they have the last 20 years, and everything will be alright. It’s worked in the past, it will work in the present. The mighty Chinese economic machine will keep churning
4: Inflation is going down, but even if it didn’t, it’s not a big deal. Companies will just raise their prices, and people will continue to buy at those prices. Corporate profits are at ATH in some sectors. Therefore stocks in those remain high. Do you really want to stay in cash with all that action happening?
5: Despite rising interest rates, they are still at historic lows. Fed will probably stop rising them soon with favorable CPI reports. Likely they will top out at very low levels anyway. Volcker days are gone.
See you at the moon my friends, I heard it’s made of cheese.
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