Ok I don’t have a short position but I always consider the bear case. It’s actually kind of fun to pick apart your own thesis.
So, here’s my thoughts about Ford and it’s pivot into EV.
The electric F150 is very cool. Who doesn’t like that? Give it a few years and will be the best selling pickup, no surprises there.
Now you might think that’s great! But think about it. Who’s customers would Ford be taking by having the best selling Pickup?
Their own…
Yea they can probably steal some customers from other pickup manufacturers (even though they are also going EV mind you), but the main bulk of their customers is going to be their own existing customers who bought the gas version of the F150.
Now I’m not American and I don’t own a pickup, but there is probably a high level of fanboying about pickups as well.
Ford isn’t challenging the EV market with the F150, it’s challenging the same old pickup market that it’s challenged for how many years now?
And that brings me to another point, how long has Ford been around, 100 years or something? You wouldn’t get good odds at the bookies that F is gonna grow substantially any time soon.
But what about electric cars I hear you say!
Well I hear that, but all I see is much expensive retooling.
Startup EV companies have an advantage there, they don’t need to retool and retrain, they are fresh off the bat.
And then there is the dealership thing..
TDLR:
F looks like a value trap to me or worse, it has an ok dividend though if that’s your thing.
Give me your bull case thanks.
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