I want to start a large long position in SPY. I was hesitant last time we got into these ranges, and honestly am feeling even more hesitant now. I really think this is the tip of the iceberg and the pain is going to get worse over at least the next 6-12 months. P/E is finally coming down, has a lot of room to go, and I think we're going to see layoffs starting this summer. I also think it's going to take at least until the end of the year to get inflation back to some semblance of normalcy. So on hand, I'm afraid to fomo and miss it if this somehow melts right back up, but on the other hand, I really don't think we're at the low, maybe even close to it, and I think this is falling at least another 20%. The market is forward-looking, so I thought these was all “priced in” or whatever, but I'm also thinking that talk is nonsense in reality.
Tl;dr am considering a large long position in SPY, don't want to touch it for at least five years, but am concerned this is the start and we're dipping another 10-20%. I also wouldn't be shocked (though I think it's more unlikely this time around) if the market melts back up to all time highs in a few weeks, especially if the big tech earnings go well next week.
What to do?
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