All- wanted to get your thoughts. I had actually sold my Spy shares in January, back when it dipped to $465 in anticipation of this downturn. Now trying to “time” re-entry (and know the pitfalls of trying to time.
RealIze also there are still uncertain times ahead, and that the trend/channel/chart shows downtrend.
That said- in history, it is the uncertainty aspect that drives down the market, and the FOMC when it announces the .25 hike, and just as importantly the dot chart for the year.. perhaps that uncertainty to be quelled a bit.
Also, know this is speculative as well, but fortunately peace talks continuing with Ukraine/Russia and hopefully a good end result.
Also— it seems in the last five years (SPY history) the middle/end of March has a downturn then some solid recovery at least until end of April / beginning of May, before more uncertainty brews before the next FOMC.
I don’t want to miss out on the potential upturns, particularly if the aforementioned factors come into fruition and we see that V Shaped recovery.
I’m thinking perhaps to buy back, and either sell again end of April and perhaps even, hold and if necessary sell some covered calls again as we get into another possible downturn as we head into the May FOMC.
I know there will be opinions on both sides— but essentially the question is (while of course so many macro economic factors)- is there another just huge overriding reason that this will continue to go down (unlike the SPY of the last five years during the period)?
Some that are experienced have also said that the indexes actually go up during the interest rate hikes (and it is during the period of uncertainty before hikes it goes down).
Also it seems at some point after the death cross has been met, that is often the low point and up from there.
I feel many of you are far more experienced than me on this, and some of you have been through in the past, so curious to thoughts !
Leave a Reply