Sort of a binary play (GERN)

So to start off, I have a substantial position in this stock, (~10k shares). With that out of the way, I'll move forward.

I want to start by introducing you guys to INCY, the company that developed Jakafi. Jakafi is a drug that is standard of care treatment for certain types of bone marrow cancers – in particular a condition called myelofibrosis. INCY reported last year revenues of 2.135 billion for Jakafi. INCY was trading for $2.xx in 2009, two years prior to the approval by the FDA. The stock went to $12 in 2010 before the approval, it went $140+ in 2017.

This is all relevant to GERN, currently trading at $1.45, because they are a single drug company developing Imetelstat. The drug is a first in class novel drug, a telomerase inhibitor. GERN has two studies going into Phase 3 trials, targeting myelofibrosis and a similar disease called myelodysplastic syndrome. Their myelofibrosis study has a primary endpoint of overall survival (this is important).

So, past performance isn't a guarantee of future results and the cookie doesn't always crumble our way. BUT – I think we a set up for a binary play here, and I'll tell you why ;

INCY and GERN have several things in common ;

1. One drug company
2. Price bottoming during dilutional phases to generate cash flow
3. Therapy for relatively rare diseases with few good options

Important differences ;

1. INCY brought a product to market 10 years ago
2. GERN may never do that
3. GERNs study has a primary endpoint of overall survival

So in essence this is a small market cap company, with a single drug, and it's coming to the most crucial part of a drug's development – stage 3 trials and regulatory approval. It's either going completely tits up or it's getting approved.

I work in the medical field, and I've tried to leave that part out of this post, but there's several reasons why I fully expect Imetelstat to replace and match sales of Jakafi.

1. Imetelstat is given IV, hematologists get paid more to give it to you than Jakafi (a pill)
2. Imetelstat has “disease modifying effects” ; it changes the disease process more significantly in bone marrow
3. Imetelstat has been shown in Stage 2 trials to prolong overall survival, patients primarily care about how long a drug can help them live (duh).
4. If Imetelstat is proven to lengthen survival vs BAT, it could absolutely become a standard of care.

I'm happy to talk to anyone about the medical part of it in the comments, but I didn't want to shit up the post about the stock. Also I realize number 1 is a shitty reason, but it's more true than you know. Medicine is a business too in the US.

To close here, I think you have the opportunity to buy in at basically the basement. This company could feasibly develop a $2 BILLION dollar drug. The company has a market cap of 540 MILLION. If GERN makes this drug happen, and it becomes standard of care, GERN could do something similiar to INCY (which saw 4500% growth).

If not, then you might lose literally your entire investment. Who knows? I'm definitely not a professional, I just dont want to work forever. Cheers guys.