Simple table showing why it may be better to cut your losses early


Given recent market turmoil, seeing lots of posts and comments saying words to the effect of “share X has gone down 50% – it's a great time to get back in” or “it's already down 50%, I may as well hold on”. I'm sure most are already aware of the math, but sometimes seeing the percentage recoveries needed in black and white can give a pause for thought before diving backing.

Not saying don't buy back in or DCA down etc – I certainly will be for some index ETFs. Just don't do it on a whim! Look at the percentage recovery needed and ask yourself whether in the current economic and political environment, is it likely in the time frame you are looking at. Equally, could it get worse!

For what its worth, I think the central banks cannot raise interest rates like they are implying and need to simply due to the amount of debt they have allowed to accumulate( and encouraged people to accumulate at all levels of society – both corporate and individual ).

If you bought a share at a nominal price of 100 and have already suffered a 50% loss. Mentally, you may be sanguine about losing another 10 or 20, but check the percentage recovery needed to get you back to break even and see if you are still sanguine about it.

Nominal Price Drops by Amount Drops by as Percentage % Recovery Needed
100 5 -5.00% 5.26%
100 10 -10.00% 11.11%
100 15 -15.00% 17.65%
100 20 -20.00% 25.00%
100 25 -25.00% 33.33%
100 30 -30.00% 42.86%
100 35 -35.00% 53.85%
100 40 -40.00% 66.67%
100 45 -45.00% 81.82%
100 50 -50.00% 100.00%
100 55 -55.00% 122.22%
100 60 -60.00% 150.00%
100 65 -65.00% 185.71%
100 70 -70.00% 233.33%
100 75 -75.00% 300.00%
100 80 -80.00% 400.00%
100 85 -85.00% 566.67%
100 90 -90.00% 900.00%
100 95 -95.00% 1900.00%
100 100 -100.00% You're already wiped out!


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *