Screaming buy (&potential short squeeze) for Just Eat Takeaway (AMS: TKWY)

Mostly US audience, so let me start by saying this is a Dutch company by origin. They're active in the US since they aquired GrubHub. This has been a complete failure mostly because of the price they paid. They're actively trying to get rid of it, which was complicated because of the legal dispute over “fee caps” in NY (max. fee GrubHub could charge for delivery).

Recently judges ruled in favor of Just Eat and said Fee Caps were unconstitutional. Just Eat CEO said he expects a settlement (TKWY claims $100 million EBIDTA loss).

Bull thesis:

– Market cap is a measly 2,6 billion.

– Since fee caps will get lifted GrubHub profitability will increase. They are exploring a sale of GrubHub, once valued $7 billion. Imagine they sell it for $800 million. That's 1/3 of their market cap

– CEO (founder) owns 7% of stock. Seth Klarman (superinvestor) owns 9% through his investment vehicle Beaupost Group. He has a histoty of market beating returns. TKWY has 3% of stock on its balance from a completed buyback program.

– $150 million buyback running. Up to 6% of shares at current valuation.

– 15% short interest

– Recently upped guidance from 275 million EBIDTA to 310 million. Expected to cashflowneutal Q4 and positive thereafter.

NOW HERES THE CATCH! They are ALREADY profitable in most of their markets. You have to look at TKWY as a collection of meal delivery companies in different countries. They are market leader in The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, UK, Ireland, N.-Europe, etc. Most of these subsidiaries (esp. Germany & Netherlands/Belgium) are pretty profitable. They wouldn't do 300 million share buybacks IN ONE YEAR (= 10% of market cap) if they were struggling for cash.

Once they shed GrubHub (and they will, eventually), the true value of their EU market leading profit machines is gonna come out.

I'm very well informed about this so feel free to ask questions, but I promise you this is gonna be a nice ride. I expect al the very least back to 20-24 range. Don't miss out because it's european. This is a solid company and a nobrainer buy.