The growth of the U.S. national debt (although it seems secondary to me, as it keeps increasing steadily).
Debt from student loans has significantly increased.
Debt-to-GDP ratio is 119.47% (80% or less is considered normal).
The number of loans has decreased by -0.6% YoY, which strongly impacts economic activity, making growth nearly impossible. Loan delinquencies have increased by 31.11% YoY.
Decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. -> reduced purchasing power or fear/expectation of worsening conditions. Whatever it is, it's not okay.
The unemployment rate is decreasing -> people are afraid of problems and are holding onto their current positions (uncertainty).
The number of job vacancies is decreasing.
Unemployment is gradually and confidently increasing.
A sharp increase in interest rates. In 100% of cases, a crisis followed such sharp increases.
I believe a significant crisis will occur approximately 12 months after the peak in interest rates. Since, according to forecasts, they won't be raised anymore:
The rate reached 5.5% in July of '23.
July + 12 months = July 2024.
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