Prove me wrong: It’d be a huge mistake not to hold stocks for the long term because of AI


Assumptions:

  • Companies can save exponentially more money with AI.
  • For example, as a company, you used to have to pay $85/hr and a total of 10 hours ($850 total) to write a good blog post for marketing. With LLMs (large language models), you can generate an article and ask your writer to spend one hour editing it. The cost to produce a similar quality of a blog post went from $850 to $85 and the speed to produce it went from 2 days to 1 hour.
  • Soon, many workers will be exponentially more productive.
  • Things that used to cost a lot of money to produce will be cheap.
  • We're starting to get generative AI in video games, movies, music, programming, etc. as well.
  • Like the iPhone which made many workers significantly more efficient and opened entirely new industries, AI can and will likely do the same.
  • Thus, corporations and stocks will benefit.
  • There will obviously be big losers and big winners but as a whole, I expect S&P 500 to continue to marge towards greater profitability and a bigger total market cap.


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