I've been seeing fewer news articles about Russia. Most people would assume this is because people are “over it”, but I don't think that's right. I don't think people will be “over it” for a long time.
Rather, what I believe is happening is Putin has faced unexpected headwinds…. He has therefore decided that he wants to wind back the “special operation” without making it look like a loss. How can he do this?
Simple. He stops his army from doing anything newsworthy for a while. Bad headlines make the war look like it's going poorly. No headlines make the “operation” look like it's going as expected. Western media has a hard time getting past the iron curtain, but it can still make it to the Russian people on occasion.
After nothing newsworthy happens for a while, people start to wonder what's going on, what's the status. How is the operation going. Rumors will emerge in Russia that the operation is going as expected and potentially wrapping up soon. This will simply be a signal for Russians to buy Russian stocks because they are allowed to and when the war is over, Russian stocks will most likely see a mild rally.
That's when Putin will announce that Ukraine has been de-militarized and the operation was successful. Ukraine will remain a nation “at the will of Russia” and “has agreed” to limit military exercises and defense spending to a level that is acceptable to Russia.
Oil prices plunge because various nations can slightly increase their Russian oil buys, but will remain committed to reducing this spend over time in a transition to green energy. Bear on oil stocks.
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