Scenario 1. Ukraine falls to Russia, either by some Ukraine military officials defaults, Zelensky gone or run away, Ukrainian retreat.
Market outlook : US market rally couple of days and gone back to Inflation worries.
Scenario 2. Kyiv don't fall and Ukraine give a tough fight to Russia, Putin resolved the matter diplomatically
Market outlook : This may last to few day or worst few weeks, market behaving like its doing past few days, huge swings but mostly stay red
Scenario 3. US/NATO says we don't want Ukraine to be part of NATO, face-saving to both nations and both go back to repairs whats lost.
Market outlook : Market rally couple of days and gone back to inflation
Please note, I am sad on what is happening and this post is not about good or bad. I have positions I want to decide based on probabilities and what my option are, I hope many others must be same boat so just would like to know what others are thinking.
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