Possible Bullish Thesis on Hertz


I know, I know – investors or traders have gotten the shaft on this ticker, but hear me out.

Hertz ran into more issues post-covid travel restrictions when Tesla marked down the price of their vehicles and accelerated the depreciation of said assets on Hertz's books (PP&E on balance sheet). There has also been seasonality regarding sales, profitability, and consumer spending is relatively contractionary for the overall sector. Their earnings have obviously been unsatisfactory, and there's been leadership and financial restructuring to try get things back on track. IDC about any of that really, what I care about is the strategic mistake to accelerate the sale of their EVs given the low utilization rate of EVs by their customers in the Hertz fleet.

Hertz is positioned to have one of the largest robo-taxi fleets in the world, second to only Tesla themselves to my knowledge, and Tesla can't position fleets everywhere yet.

  • After Tesla began seriously teasing investors with the idea, companies like Lyft and Uber corrected, hard, while Hertz reached a bottom @ <$3/share with upside volatility characteristics.
  • Hertz is trading at well below book value, and the PP&E depreciation will decelerate once Teslas become a profitable investment (i.e., rideshare fees > depreciation & maintenance).
  • The low utilization rate by Hertz's customers will be moot if the fleet is automatically participating robo-ridesharing. They will be utilized, at least more so than previous reporting periods.

If Hertz slows or ceases selling their EVs for short term liquidity, once robo-taxi platform rolls out, Hertz has a new revenue stream with their existing assets. The depreciation will slow or reverse, their low utilization rate will subside, and their profitability will increase dramatically.

There's a lot of ifs in this scenario, but if this happens, I think Hertz will at least trade at book value ( > $6.25/share) indicating over 75% upside by the end of this year. If profitability continued to grow from robo-taxi fees, and if Hertz accomplishes higher profitability over the next several years from this while increasing utilization rates, their EPS will go profitable again which if sustainable we're looking at over $10-20/share in the coming years.

What are your thoughts?
Do you see value in this thesis?
Do you have a strong counter argument?

Looking forward to your thoughts. Thanks!


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