Ive been reading extensively about options since January, just to learn how they work.
Tell me if I have this down correctly. Profit/value is mainly controlled by three things:
- Delta (change in premium price due to change in underlying share price)
- IV (volatility)
- Theta (time decay)
For #1, its about predicting the correct direction of price movement.
For #2, volatile stocks (which have the potential for large share price changes). You pay more for these because of the potential for higher gains
For #3, time causes premium price to decay
Drawing a conclusion based off all these factors, it seems like the way to profit is really only an unexpected jump or drop in price in the direction you predicted, and the stock becoming volatile.
Question #1:
So how exactly do folks profit off of 7dte calls or 0dtes?
I see folks getting into 0dtes or 1dtes like SPY calls but SPY is not very volatile. They seem to just profit off of prediction correct price direction movement. Even if price was volatile, stock movement doesnt seem to me high enough to overcome theta. How come then, do I see folks making profit off of these?
Question #2:
On the other hand, one could buy long dated calls, and hope for a big jump between now and expiration, and therefore profit off of IV and underlying price increasing the premium. Why is this not a good strategy if far out enough?
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