On $FB and the Metaverse

Disclaimer: I have FB as part of my portfolio (I own a ton of SP500 and QQQ)

This isn't a recommendation or a warning post. Just a collection of some observations that I've had over the past few months.

1. The Metaverse already exists

   Everytime you login to FB/Insta/Twitter/Tiktok/Reddit/multiplayer game – you're logging into the metaverse. That's it, that's the metaverse – a virtual world where humans connect with each other and interact with each other in various ways, play games etc

2. Reddit/Twitter hates FB/Meta

   Everytime someone even attempts to talk about Meta on Reddit/Twitter, there will be a huge list of comments that say how much they hate FB/Zuck, how it's a huge privacy risk etc. Yes, all of that might be true, but ~3B daily active/monthly active users don't seem to care. For 3B people around the world, the value that FB/Meta provides is more than any potential privacy issue. That's more than half of human population and >70% population with internet access.

3. Oculus Quest 2 is a sneak peek into the future

   You will be surprised to see how positive the reception for OQ2 is even on Reddit and Twitter. OQ2 is currently a near monopoly in the VR market. Just google/search Reddit for OQ2 reviews you will come to the same conclusion.

4. Main issues with OQ2 seem temporary

   The two main issues with OQ2 are the lack of good content and the usability issues like disorientation etc. Both are solvable with tech and time. The tech will improve to make such headsets comfortable for majority of the users. The content library is bad right now mainly because there aren't enough devs and it hasn't been around for long. These problems will be solved.

5. Project Cambria leaks look insanely good

   Project Cambria aka Quest Pro is supposed to release later this year. Just look at the leaks and a picture of Boz(head of Reality Labs at Meta) wearing it. It's got a thin form factor and looks cool and slick exactly like an AAPL product. I can totally see this device becoming the replacement for personal computers and the main way games are played in the future.

6. Meta/FB is the only company with an iterative product in VR space

   Yes AAPL, MSFT, GOOG are all trying but Meta is really the only company with a successful product already out and an app store and an ecosystem in this VR space. I fully expect AAPL to give tough competition to them with a successful device but with the first mover advantage, Meta can easily become the Android of this space.

7. VR is a very very important step towards AR, you cannot skip it

   AR is the ultimate goal. Having an AR glass that's fully integrated with the real world is the ultimate metaverse product. But to get there, you need a lot of tech experimented in the VR and iterate on how to make it work as an overlay on the real world in AR. For example, handling virtual objects, death perception etc.

8. The metaverse will definitely get more immersive

   Humans love interacting with each other, we love connecting with each other. That's why social media is such a huge thing in our lives, we simply cannot opt out. The natural next step will be a more immersive AR/VR experience to our current metaverse of social media apps. People love to claim that they like the real world but the huge success of FB/Insta/Youtube/Tiktok suggest otherwise.

9. Dismissing the potential of the metaverse is akin to dismissing the potential of the internet/personal computers in the 90s

   Every single time there was a new piece of technology that was promised, there have been naysayers. People really thought bicycles were a bad thing once (check Pessimists archive on Twitter). Given the above observations, a more immersive metaverse is inevitable, it's just a matter of time.

10. FB/Meta is probably the best company positioned for the metaverse right now

    Meta is really again the only company with a VR product out and the amount of learning they can do with this data will be very valuable for their AR venture. It might take more than 10 years to get to a fully functioning metaverse but their hardware division will not be at a loss for long, just because of the prospects in gaming alone. VR gaming will be the only way to game in the near future and Meta will be the biggest ecosystem there. They will take the profits from this ecosystem and improve their metaverse offerings.

Above all this, they are already a very profitable growing company with a huge cash flow from their Family of Apps, valued very very cheaply at the moment.

I will setup 5 and 10-year reminders in the comments, I will either look like a genius or a fool. Don't care, just wanted to share my observations.