Not all “tech” companies deserve to have tech valuations


I often hear a lot about how this & that company are the next Amazon so the PE ratio does not apply to them.

There's a simple question that can tell you whether a company can have tech PEs: do they have unique products that enable them to grow their profit exponentially while keeping their costs linear? If the answer is no, they are just waiting for a correction. Even Amazon's valuation is mostly due to AWS & not their retail side.

For example:

Uber should not have a tech valuation: they are a modern cab company that needs to hire drivers and deal with local presence & its costs grow at the same rate as its revenue. That's why they are not profitable & likely never will be.

TSLA is another one, we can all see now that they want to scale, their margins are shrinking & getting closer to all other car manufacturers.

NVDA is even more prevalent: datacentres don't need an infinite number of GPUs to use pre-trained models to run generative AI applications. They currently have a demand surge & after one or two quarters, the demand will go down just like the crypto craze. The $1 trillion projection Jensen did was pure nonsense. No semi company should have software tech PEs as they cannot grow exponentially while keeping their costs linear. Especially a company like NVDA which is at the mercy of TSM, ASML & others to produce anything.


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