I was going to post this in r/stocks but then I realized that I was using a lot of profanity and have no good advice, and while they might respond to that with contempt, maybe I can make someone chuckle here. I was going to post this in WSB because it's so informal. The market cap of the stock discussed is too small for that subreddit, though. My account is a few years old but I'm still getting a feel for posting on reddit plz be kind. This post is about 60% trying to be funny, 30% asking for interactive help learning to think like an investor, and 10% honestly thinking there might be useful information – if not in the post – in the potential comments.
Hello, I'm a complete moron. I'm new to investing and I have no idea what I'm doing. I refuse to learn how to determine P/E on my own and I have no idea how P/E is supposed to inform my investing. No I won't read about it. I'm not even going to read your comments. Sit down and listen up, I'm about to give some stupid and bad advice.
Before I begin, full disclosure, I bought 3 shares (fuck you that's a lot of money for me) of UNG and I don't know how it works compared to the price or demand of natural gas. I know energy is all fucked all over the place and Europe is having a hard time. Some time ago someone didn't listen to Hank Hill's tank wiping advice and they blew up a natural gas facility (that is not how the incident occurred) which made my UNG shares worth significantly less because now we can't send it to Europe until the end of the year. I don't know how to invest in European natural gas instead of American. Here we are, now you know my story.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-swoon-to-close-wild-trading-week-cash-clunks/
A website with a vested interest in natural gas has led me to believe it's okay to buy more shares in natural gas, so long as my time preference is for later on and not next week. I'm here to pretend to give you guys advice and pretend like this is research so you all can tell me how fucking stupid I am for trusting this website or anything it has to say. Steel may sharpen steel, but what I need you metal fucks to do is cut my cheese for brains and let me know if my thinking makes sense.
(an image went here when I was gonna post it on WSB, you can see it here: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image-55.png imagine it has this caption and you're a degenerate gambler not a r/stocks dignified investor: “Look at this fuckin' data, the number is low and it's gonna get big FUCKIN 'UGE I'm gonna be RICH, I'm talkin' FUCK YOU money!!!”)
So as we can see here the… basis to Henry Hub Futures is going to go from 0 to 20something, that's an increase of like infinity percent. Does this data even have anything to do with UNG and my financial future? I can understand it's saying that this winter, natural gas will be more expensive than… um… normal…
So anyway…
“The June 8 explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal, and ensuing announcement that exports from the facility will be offline for at least three months, continued to weigh on the minds of market participants.”
“Altogether, summer demand could leave gas in storage globally at precarious levels ahead of next winter, stoking fears of a global supply squeeze.”
'“This remains a low storage level relative to history,” the Goldman analysts said. “As a result…should our U.S. gas balances realize tighter than we expect in the coming months, the risk remains that U.S. natural gas prices may need to trigger max substitution towards Appalachia coal, which we estimate would require a sustained gas price rally to around $12/MMBtu.”'
What I see from this article is that prices took a shit, yes, but consumption for power generation is fairly high, and our US stores are a little low. Winter is when natural gas costs the most, I guess – I mean look at the bumps in the winter parts of all that… data in that graph! Late this year there will, coincidentally, be a winter, plus European demand will come back to the US market with the repairs on that facility that crapped on my investment.
Does this mean that the discriminating UNG holder would average down in July and hodl until the facility is repaired and globalization resumes and everyone is freezing to death and I can profit off of that like a fucking monster piece of shit? I mean… uh… Can I get my lambo on what would be at that point maybe 5 to 8 shares depending on how dumb this plan is.
Did you come here for good advice? No, no, this is weaponized incompetence. You're here to be so annoyed I didn't give you real information that you comment with what I should think about this article, and natural gas, and things like UNG in general.
The expense ratio on UNG is 1.11 die mad about it.
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