I have been looking on and off of MP materials for a couple of months, and because it does not have a lot of history in general or financial history, I don't know what to think about it. Some quick glances at their finances show that they performs well — well, well enough for its small size and compared against the negative fundamentals of its peers (Lynas, other Australian rare earth producers, and against Canadian rare earth producers) and against other SPACs. For example, it has had a strong growth of its revenue (up 82% in 2020, 147% in 2021, and 58% in 2022), gross profit (up 563% in 2020, 278% in 2021, 69% in 2022), and a decent growth in net profits (down -223% in 2020, up 718% in 2021, and up 114% in 2022); furthermore, EPS has grown from -.27 in 2020 to 1.52 in 2022. They have a good balance sheet as well — a high cash and cash equivalent that they can fully pay off their total debt with and more than enough to meet current liabilities if needs be — they have had such a position for 3 out of the 5 years they have been public (the other two years were the first two years of when they went public). I believe they have a large market-share of US rare earth oxides market as well. Now here are some problems/questions I want to ask you all (more specifically those of you who are either invested in MP or other REO producing companies or track such markets) :
(BTW I know that MP doesn't produce REO, but rather that they produce the concentrate which they send to Chinese companies to be refined).
- How competitive is MP compared to Chinese producers of REO? Does it have a chance against taking a large share from Chinese producers?
- What are its weaknesses? I know that one of them is the short term volatile price fluctuations of REO. Besides that, do you think the demand and growth projections for REO will be realized or are they severely overestimating them? Adding on to that since REO are commodities, and currently people are saying there is a shortage of them and will continue to be, at current production, a shortage of them in the future, the price of these REOs should increase, but how long until supply meets demand and equilibrium is reached? Because after that MP strategy, since its in the commodity sphere, should just be efficiency in production to reduce costs, right?
- What do you think about their management? The CEO seems, form the interviews I have watched of him, focused on the idea of establishing a US REO market, but other views from him regarding the business (except the need for REO, the high demand for them, etc.) I haven't heard much about. What about the other management? — What do you all think of them?
Finally, I would appreciate any thoughts on MP Materials — even if you hate them, like them, think they are doomed, etc. etc. I just want to get others opinions and thoughts on this company.
Thanks.
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