Nasdaq hit 13,543 points on Jan 28, 2021. Right now we are at 13,351. Last ATH for Nasdaq was in November 2021 at 16,212. Tech stocks index have been flat for literally 1.5 years now. Not to mention bear market crash for bonds, (high growth stocks which are down -70%) and cryptos (down -40%)
All attempts for rallies in Feb and April of this year have been sold viciously. Dont get me wrong , I am down 30k on a portfolio of 100k but here is why I think we are heading towards a lot more pain in the coming months
1) Legendary investor Ken Fisher recently released this video (link [in comment]) about identifying bear markets, and per this evaluation, bear markets tends to last 12-24 months. With minor drops of 1-2% per month happening for 2/3 of that time period.. and severe crash (4-5% per month) happening in the last 1/3 of that time. (Wink wink : We have been touching lower lows of 1-2% every month since November 2021 till now)
2)Last week we found out that inflation hit 8.5% this year, highest since 40 years. Thanks to unlimited money printing by JPowell and supply chain issues/ lack of ramping up production.
Georgia has already declared emergency over supply chain constraints yesterday
3) War in Ukraine.. which has now potentially became war of attrition and WH has predicted it might go on for months with no signs of end of hostilities. That potentially means high oil prices until EOY. Crude recently went below $90, but now is back up to $106
4) Mortgage rate is over the roof with average 30 year fixed breaching a holyguacamoly number of 5.3%
5) Most accurate predictor of recession, the yield curve has also inverted last month. 10 Year yield has breached 2.82%
There is no question that JPowell chair of the Federal reserve controls the long term health of the US stock market. He is stuck between increasing inflation or causing recession. May 5th FOMC will be a big day for the market this year with a lot of volatility just like March FOMC
What are your thoughts about stock market in the coming 2-6 months?
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