In 2023 narative will change.Inflation will go down a lot and the problem is gonna be recession, terrible earnings, rise of unemployment,QT continuing.And usually thats when market bottoms.
Since year 1930 market always bottom at:
1.Mid of recession(1/3-2/3 into recession)
2.Unemployment peaked or near peak
Both things didn't happen yet.
10y 2/3 months treasury are inverted.These are the most accurate indicators of upcoming recession.Last time they were inverted in last 25years was in 2000(dotcom),2008(finan crisis), 2020(covid). My prediction is around Q3/Q4 2023.
Your thoughts?
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