After February 24, 2022, European countries has paid the Russian Federation more than $150 billion for the energy supplies. Therefore, the mood in Moscow is very good. Having such foreign exchange reserves, the Russian Federation can wage a war of attrition with an economically poor and devastated Ukraine for quite a long time. Moreover, even tomorrow, the Kremlin may order its troops to start cutting through the land Suwalki corridor (Suwalki gap) to East Prussia – from Belarus along the territory of the Polish-Lithuanian border to the Kaliningrad region.
Moscow is also very pleased with the fact that prices for natural gas on spot exchanges in Europe have reached $2.6 thousand per 1 thousand m³. According to the forecasts of the gleeful Gazprom concern, in January-February 2023, if the trend continues, the prices for “blue fuel” may exceed $4 thousand per 1,000 m³. Such high gas prices automatically turn into a means of warfare for the Kremlin, which , of course, is very depressing for Kyiv and all allies of Ukraine. Restrictive measures against the Russian economy are in place, but they have a long-term cumulative effect. In the meantime, the Russian Federation, receiving huge profits from the sale of energy resources, can afford to bypass many restrictions, simply overpaying for sanctioned goods, parts and components imported through China, Kazakhstan, Iran and a number of Arab states thanks to “gray” and “black” schemes.
However, as many European experts assure, this situation in the European markets will become a “swan song” for the Russian energy giants. Economists explain the current sharp rise in gas prices by the fact that all European states that have underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are filling them with “blue fuel” very intensively in preparation for the difficult heating season. As part of countering Putin's Russia and ensuring the energy security of Europe, changes were made to EU legislation regarding the regulation of the use of UGS facilities. In particular, at the beginning of the heating season this year, UGS facilities must be filled with gas at least 80 % of their volumes, and in subsequent years – at least 90 %. UGS facilities in the EU are expected to be filled with gas to the required 80 % at the end of August.
In the medium term, a complete EU embargo on the purchase of Russian oil will begin to operate, and gas purchases from the Russian Federation will gradually but significantly decrease. So, already now Russia was forced to reduce oil production by 25 %, and gas – by 12 % due to a decrease in supplies to Europe. Already during this year, oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers from many countries of the world have entered European ports much more often than before. Further, the intensity of such supplies will only increase. Today, Germany is already completing the construction of new LNG terminals, Croatia and Poland are increasing the capacity of their terminals, and Belgium, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece are working on the future modernization of their terminals.
So, if in 2020 Gazprom daily supplied Europe with up to 500 million m³ per day, then in mid-July 2022 these deliveries reached a historical minimum – about 80 million m³ per day. It is possible that the Russian Federation will not be able to increase the indicators of deliveries of “blue fuel” to Europe, at least for the next ten years (until the fascist regime in the Russian Federation is destroyed). In turn, the prices for gas and oil in the European markets are guaranteed to equalize within the next year. Well, let's hope that the countries of Europe will have enough money for gas for the coming winter, while totalitarian Russia will lose the excess profits that allow it to wage expansionist wars.
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