Mercedes cuts FY guidance by 25%. First of many profits warnings to come..

MBG has cut FY24 guidance today at 9pm Reducing FY24 guidance by over 25% with FY EBIT margin from 10-11% to 7.5%-8.5%. Main driver is weakness is China where MB gets lots of its profit.

I think this is the first of many profit warnings we will get this September from Autos and Luxury companies. China is very weak and consumer to buying big ticket items globally.

As always germany leads the way on profit warnings given their strict reporting requirements:

full release below:

Mercedes-Benz Group AG adjusts full-year guidance for the year 2024 based on current market outlook

Stuttgart, Germany – As a result of recent developments, Mercedes-Benz Group AG today adjusted its earnings outlook for the year 2024 for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Mercedes-Benz Group.

This was triggered by a further deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, mainly in China. GDP growth in China lost further momentum amid weaker consumption as well as the continued downturn in the real estate sector. This affected the overall sales volume in China including sales in the Top-End segment. Overall, the sales mix in the second half of 2024 is expected to remain unchanged versus the first half, and therefore weaker than originally expected.

Additionally, the second half of 2024 is expected to be impacted by various valuation adjustments. Furthermore, the dynamic pricing environment is expected to continue.

Therefore, Mercedes-Benz Group has updated its full-year outlook:

Mercedes-Benz Cars now expects the adjusted Return on Sales to be between 7.5% and 8.5% (previously: 10% to 11%). This implies an expected adjusted Return on Sales of around 6% for the second half of the year. The valuation adjustments are expected to have an impact of around 1 percentage point in the second half of this year.
Mercedes-Benz Vans’ expected adjusted Return on Sales (14% to 15%) and Mercedes-Benz Mobility’s expected adjusted Return on Equity (8.5% to 9.5%) remain unchanged.
Mercedes-Benz Group’s EBIT is now expected to be significantly below the prior year level (previously: slightly below the prior-year level).
Free cash flow of the industrial business for the Mercedes-Benz Group is now expected to be significantly below the prior-year level (previously: slightly below the prior-year level).