2500: serious problems. you're talking about a 35% decline from current levels. this conversation would be irrelevant because most of us would be having housing problems, job problems, etc. i'd be speechless if the stock market went from 4800 -> 2500 (basically a 50% drawdown) in a 12 month timeframe. things are bad, but they aren't great financial crisis bad (and that was about a 50% drawdown).
3000: give up all of the gains since before the pandemic (about 3370, which some people called out as inorganically too high/inflated back then. P/E is about 20x now, it was 25x+ during this pre-feb 2020 time frame) because things are “worse” than they were then (debatable).
3500: market has fallen off of a clip in the past 2 trading days. volatility is slowly creeping back. 2 or 3 more “severe-ish” bad trading days (2-3% down days) and we're around 3500-3750. if we're really in a “downtrending bear market” that's just moving slowly, we're bound to set lower highs (aka we didn't get back to 4800, we got up to 4150) and make lower lows (aka it's time to breakthrough 3800, which was where we got stuck last selloff)
4000: we were just there. market has already hit 3800 this year, hung out, then hung out near 4100 for a while. bad CPI report today but… market could digest, get over it, get back to upward trend. i've never read as many “i don't DCA, i just swing options, DCA isn't guaranteed, i just want to pick safer stocks, i just want to pick winners like TSLA + APPLE” in my 10-15+ years on reddit. i'd say retail sentiment is pretty weak. i don't think 4000 excites a lot of people. you've got the “i DCA 10% of my paycheck and forget about it crowd” making a lot of noise, but i don't think they drive the market. that's steady. maybe some up their contributions. maybe some get scared and cancel them. kind of all just outlier/noise compared to the masses reevaluating “stonks only go up” for the first time in their generation.
4500: inflation likely hasn't peaked, fed just started unwinding balance sheet, more rate hikes to come. gas prices pretty much all time high without an end in sight. maybe upcoming earnings seasons some companies somehow crush it and beat expectations but… i don't personally see us reaching this level in 2022 based on current data + sentiment, but that's also not how markets work and retail investors (like myself) are some of the first to make a prediction out of their ass for zero reason and have it work against them (both a stock going up or down)
5000: if oil wasn't in its current state, maybe inflation wouldn't be as bad. the narrative is that lots of wealthy people have lots of money to drop on $50k vacations, bidding way over asking price on houses, luxury goods, etc. yes, poor people are affected by inflation the hardest and there are lots of poor people, but the top is not hurting and they spend lots. realistically, to go up 28% from where we are now (we need 23% just to get back to our old all time high/52 week high). it'd be a miracle, very unlikely based on lots of data i think
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