Let’s assume there is a recession – what’s next?

Let’s assume in 2023 there is a recession so many have talked about. For the sake of discussion, let’s assume it’s two quarters of negative growth in Q2 and Q3, and unemployment climbs to 4.5%. A mid-mild recession, but a recession none the less. What are the logical next steps that happen?

To me, this is where the interest rate hikes really have given the fed a ton of leverage. If we do have a recession going into Q4, inflation will be sub 3% (it’s already under 2% annualized last 6 months), we can start to see rate decreases and QE. This is inherently bullish, as liquidity will be in the market.

I’m struggling to see a scenario where the stock market could crash significantly lower than it already hit. Anyone willing to throw something my way? Keeping in mind all the fed tools they have to use later this year.

Open to thoughts / ideas but I can’t steelman a bear case right now.