It’s too much of a risk to not own TSLA.

Let's do some math.

Given Shanghai's current run rate is 22k per week, that annualizes to a little of 1M per year. Fremont does 600k a year, and I'm estimating Berlin and Austin both do about ~300k next year(Run rate of 75k per quarter at Q1 and then run rate of 500k at end of Q3. That means give or take 300k total). This adds up to 2.2M next year in line with their own 50% yoy growth estimates.

Kell Blue Book also has the avg selling price of a Tesla in November of 2022 to be 68K. Apparently were supposed to have a recession next year, so let's say Tesla is forced to lower the avg selling price of their vehicle down to 59k.

This would give Tesla about 130B in revenue next year (2.2M * 59k). Assuming operating margins of 20%, this leaves Tesla with 26B in profit. Divide 26B by the number of shares outstanding, 3.468B, and you get an eps of $7.5.

What does that make Tesla's forward PE ratio you might ask? Less than Apples. With a share price of $140, Tesla has a forward PE of 18.7. Apple has a forward PE ratio of 19.55. If you are excited to buy Apple at these prices when their -25% off ath, but won't touch Tesla why not? Tesla is grossly undervalued, and the market is providing a huge opportunity for those able to keep a level head.