Recent articles point out Pepsi and McDonalds have exposure in Russia. Both stocks are down.
But without Russia, aren't Pepsi and McDonalds the kind of defensive stocks we'd like to own? Cons (besides russia):
- Inflationary costs of raw material.
- Labor costs.
- With so many small mom-and-pop stores going out of business, maybe McDonald's real estate value isn't worth what it once was (pure speculation).
Pros:
- Fast food might perform pretty well during recession.
- Pepsi is a bit of a reopening play.
- Junk food is something people go for during bad times.
- Russia's pain is China's gain. And maybe Pepsi and McDonalds can make up losses by investing more in China (pure speculation here).
Unknowns:
- How much will the loyalty programs from McDonalds drive growth?
- How much automation can these companies implement to offset labor costs?
- How long will the Russia problem linger?
In the long term these stocks should be good dividend stocks that everyone should own (at least a little). Question is if this is the great time to pick up some stake when people might be over-reacting to Russia news.
Leave a Reply