Hello all,
SPY gained 8% and QQQ gained 13% in less than 2 weeks which seems surprising with the current environment when we have inflation out of control, high commodities prices and one of the worst fed tightening in decades.
I am not trying to time the market and I keep adding in undervalued stocks but I do not want to get dragged into “FOMO” rally. I am long-term bullish and I only have one cheap put contract as a small hedge. There is huge SPY puts flow but this could be MMs hedging their portfolios.
My take (not a financial advisor):
Bottom line: Nobody knows anything.
I think Fed is way behind the curve and they eventually will have to aggressive and do more rate hikes and slow economy. However, I think recession is less likely due to strong labor market. We might revisit close to Feb-Mar lows but it might not happen until Apr-May when companies start to report Q2 earnings and next FOMC meeting. QQQ might reach to ~365 and SPY to ~455 before another correction happens.
I know nobody has a crystal ball, but let us hear your take. What do you think about this trend? Do you think we will revisit Feb-Mar lows?
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